Ismat Samadov
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The Distillation Wars: Anthropic and OpenAI Accuse Chinese Labs of Stealing Models at Scale

24,000+ fake accounts. 16M+ exchanges. DeepSeek, MiniMax, Moonshot accused of industrial-scale model theft. The ethics, the hypocrisy, and the national security framing.

AILLMOpinionMachine Learning

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On this page

  • What Actually Happened
  • The Scale of the Operation
  • OpenAI's Parallel Findings
  • What Is Distillation, and Why Does It Work?
  • The Legal Black Hole
  • Copyright Doesn't Apply
  • Terms of Service Is All They Have
  • No Court Has Ruled
  • The Hypocrisy Problem
  • Anthropic's $1.5 Billion Problem
  • OpenAI's History
  • Western Distillation Happens Too
  • The National Security Framing
  • The Political Timeline
  • What They're Really Asking For
  • The DeepSeek Panic
  • What the Technical Community Thinks
  • The "This Is Genuine Theft" Camp
  • The "Welcome to the Open Market" Camp
  • The "Everyone Is Distilling" Camp
  • What Happens Next
  • The Regulatory Response
  • Technical Countermeasures
  • The Geopolitical Escalation
  • What I Actually Think
  • Sources

On February 23, 2026, Anthropic published a blog post with a clinical title: "Detecting AI Model Distillation." The content was anything but clinical. Anthropic accused three Chinese AI labs -- DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Moonshot AI -- of systematically extracting knowledge from Claude using over 24,000 fake accounts and more than 16 million API exchanges. Eleven days earlier, OpenAI had sent a memo to the U.S. House Select Committee on the CCP making nearly identical claims about DeepSeek.

Two of the largest American AI companies independently accused the same Chinese labs of the same thing within the same month. Either this is a coordinated propaganda campaign, or something genuinely massive happened. The evidence suggests both are true -- the theft is real, and the framing is strategic.

Let me walk through the data, the hypocrisy, and why this matters far more than the headlines suggest.


What Actually Happened

The Scale of the Operation

Anthropic's investigation revealed industrial-scale extraction:

LabFake AccountsAPI ExchangesMethod
MiniMax~14,000~13 millionSystematic prompt patterns across distributed accounts
Moonshot AI~7,000~3.4 millionSimilar distributed extraction
DeepSeek~3,000~150,000Targeted, focused extraction
Total~24,000+~16.5 million+

These weren't casual users pushing the API hard. According to Anthropic, the accounts exhibited coordinated behavior patterns -- similar prompt structures, systematic coverage of topics, timing patterns consistent with automated extraction rather than human usage. The technical blog post described novel detection methods including statistical analysis of query patterns and output comparison techniques.

MiniMax alone generated 13 million exchanges. To put that in perspective, that's roughly the equivalent of one person having 1,000 conversations with Claude every single day for 36 years. This wasn't someone "playing around" with the API.

OpenAI's Parallel Findings

OpenAI's February 12, 2026 testimony to the House Select Committee claimed that DeepSeek used OpenAI model outputs to train its models, specifically pointing to DeepSeek-R1's reasoning traces showing patterns consistent with distillation from GPT-4 and o1-series models. OpenAI stated it had evidence of "distillation" -- the process of training a smaller, cheaper model to mimic the outputs of a larger, more expensive one.

Microsoft researchers independently corroborated these findings, identifying patterns in DeepSeek's outputs that were statistically consistent with training on OpenAI model outputs.

The timing wasn't coincidental. Both companies released their findings in February 2026, just as U.S. lawmakers were debating new export controls on AI technology and the Protecting AI Innovation and Privacy Act (PAIP) was gaining traction in Congress.


What Is Distillation, and Why Does It Work?

Before we get into the ethics, let's understand the technique.

Knowledge distillation was formalized by Geoffrey Hinton, Oriol Vinyals, and Jeff Dean in 2015. The paper, "Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network," introduced a simple but powerful idea: a smaller "student" model can learn to replicate the behavior of a larger "teacher" model by training on the teacher's outputs rather than the original training data.

The intuition is this: when a large model outputs a probability distribution over possible answers, that distribution contains more information than just the correct answer. It contains the model's uncertainty, its near-misses, its sense of which wrong answers are "almost right." A student model trained on these "soft targets" learns faster and generalizes better than one trained on raw data alone.

In the context of LLMs, distillation works like this:

  1. Query the teacher model with millions of diverse prompts
  2. Collect the outputs -- the full responses, including reasoning chains
  3. Train a smaller model to produce similar outputs given similar inputs
  4. The student model learns the teacher's "knowledge" without needing the teacher's massive training dataset or compute budget

The result is a model that performs surprisingly close to the teacher on many tasks while being dramatically cheaper to run. DeepSeek-R1, for instance, reportedly achieves 90%+ of GPT-4's performance on standard benchmarks at a fraction of the inference cost.

This is why distillation is so threatening to companies that spend billions training frontier models. You invest $100 million+ training a model on trillions of tokens, and someone else replicates most of your capability by spending a few hundred thousand dollars querying your API.


The Legal Black Hole

Here's where it gets uncomfortable for the American labs: what the Chinese labs allegedly did may not be illegal.

Copyright Doesn't Apply

AI model outputs are not copyrighted. The U.S. Copyright Office has repeatedly ruled that AI-generated content lacks the human authorship required for copyright protection. When Claude generates a response to a prompt, that response doesn't belong to Anthropic under copyright law. It's not clear it belongs to anyone.

This creates a bizarre situation. If I asked Claude to explain quantum mechanics 13 million times with slight variations and used those explanations to train another model, I haven't stolen copyrighted material. I've used uncopyrightable outputs.

Terms of Service Is All They Have

The only legal mechanism available to Anthropic and OpenAI is their Terms of Service (ToS), which prohibit using model outputs to train competing models. Anthropic's Acceptable Use Policy explicitly bans "developing competing AI models using outputs."

But ToS violations are contract disputes, not criminal offenses. Enforcing them against entities in China is practically impossible. Chinese courts have no obligation to enforce American ToS agreements, and the labs themselves aren't incorporated in the U.S.

No Court Has Ruled

As of April 2026, no court has issued a ruling on AI-to-AI distillation. There's no precedent. The legal system hasn't caught up with the technology. We're in a regulatory vacuum where the only "rules" are private contracts that can't be enforced against the most significant alleged violators.

Legal AvenueStatusViability
Copyright infringementNot applicable (AI outputs not copyrightable)None
Terms of Service violationApplicableUnenforceable against Chinese entities
Trade secret theftWould need to prove model weights were stolenNo public evidence
Patent infringementNo relevant patentsNone
New legislation (PAIP Act)Proposed, not yet lawUncertain

The Hypocrisy Problem

Now let's talk about the elephant in the room. Because this story isn't as simple as "American companies good, Chinese companies bad."

Anthropic's $1.5 Billion Problem

In September 2025, a group of book publishers and authors filed a class-action lawsuit against Anthropic alleging that Claude was trained on pirated copies of their books. Anthropic settled for $1.5 billion -- one of the largest copyright settlements in technology history.

Let that sink in. Anthropic is accusing Chinese labs of using Claude's outputs to train models while Anthropic itself trained Claude on copyrighted books without permission. The company that spent $1.5 billion settling claims that it misused others' intellectual property is now outraged that others are misusing its intellectual property.

The moral distinction Anthropic draws is: "We trained on publicly available data that happened to be copyrighted. They deliberately circumvented our access controls using fake accounts." That distinction is real but thin. Both involve using someone else's work product to build a competitive AI without permission.

OpenAI's History

OpenAI's position is even more awkward. The company was founded as a nonprofit committed to open AI research. Its early models were released openly. The entire original mission was to prevent AI from being monopolized by a few companies.

Now OpenAI is arguing that Chinese labs shouldn't be allowed to learn from its models' outputs -- the exact kind of knowledge sharing that OpenAI was created to promote. The New York Times lawsuit alleging OpenAI trained on NYT articles without permission is still active. OpenAI is simultaneously arguing that it should be allowed to train on others' work and that others shouldn't be allowed to train on its work.

Western Distillation Happens Too

Here's the fact that makes the "theft" framing collapse: Western companies distill from each other all the time.

Microsoft's Phi-4 model was trained partly on synthetic data generated by GPT-4o and o3-mini -- which are OpenAI models. Microsoft is an investor in OpenAI. But the technique is identical: use a larger model's outputs to train a smaller one. The Phi-4 technical report openly acknowledges using "synthetic data" from stronger models.

Google's Gemma models have been trained on data that likely includes outputs from other AI systems. Numerous startups and research labs train on GPT-4 and Claude outputs as standard practice, often in violation of ToS that nobody enforces.

The difference between "Western distillation" and "Chinese distillation" isn't the technique. It's the geopolitical context.


The National Security Framing

This is where the story gets really interesting -- and really cynical.

The Political Timeline

The distillation accusations didn't emerge in a vacuum. They appeared during a specific political moment:

DateEvent
January 2026Trump administration announces expanded AI export controls
February 12, 2026OpenAI testifies to House Select Committee on CCP
February 23, 2026Anthropic publishes distillation detection blog
March 2026PAIP Act gains bipartisan support
March 2026Commerce Department considers "model output export controls"

Both companies framed the distillation issue as a national security threat, not just a business complaint. OpenAI's testimony explicitly connected AI distillation to Chinese military capabilities. Anthropic's blog post emphasized that distillation could allow "adversarial actors" to acquire capabilities that were "developed with significant American investment."

What They're Really Asking For

The American AI labs aren't just asking for sympathy. They're asking for specific policy outcomes:

  1. Export controls on AI model access -- restricting Chinese entities from using American AI APIs
  2. Federal legislation criminalizing distillation -- making ToS violations a federal offense when the violator is a foreign entity
  3. Government funding for AI safety research -- with the implicit argument that American frontier models need to stay ahead of Chinese distilled copies
  4. Regulatory barriers to competition -- framing competitive pressure from cheaper Chinese models as a security threat

Some of these are reasonable. Some are rent-seeking dressed up as patriotism. The challenge is figuring out which is which.

The DeepSeek Panic

DeepSeek's R1 model launch in January 2026 sent shockwaves through the American AI industry. It performed remarkably close to GPT-4 on many benchmarks at a fraction of the cost. The stock prices of Nvidia, Microsoft, and other AI infrastructure companies dipped significantly on the news.

The fear wasn't just that DeepSeek had a good model. The fear was that DeepSeek's model suggested the massive capital expenditures by American companies might not create durable competitive advantages. If a Chinese lab can produce 90% of the capability at 10% of the cost -- whether through distillation, efficiency innovations, or both -- then the $650 billion the Magnificent Seven are spending on AI infrastructure looks a lot less like investment and a lot more like waste.

The distillation accusations, whatever their technical merit, also serve to delegitimize DeepSeek's achievement. "They didn't really build it; they copied us" is a more comfortable narrative than "they built something nearly as good for vastly less money."


What the Technical Community Thinks

The AI research community's response has been notably divided.

The "This Is Genuine Theft" Camp

Many researchers and engineers side with Anthropic and OpenAI. Their argument: creating 24,000 fake accounts to systematically extract model capabilities is clearly adversarial behavior, regardless of whether it's technically legal. The scale of the operation (16 million+ exchanges) demonstrates intent to replicate proprietary systems, not legitimate research use.

Dario Amodei, Anthropic's CEO, framed it bluntly: the labs "knew what they were doing" and the systematic use of fake accounts demonstrated "clear intent to circumvent our protections."

The "Welcome to the Open Market" Camp

Others point out that if you offer a product via API and someone uses that API extensively, you can't retroactively call it theft. AI researchers like Yann LeCun (Meta's Chief AI Scientist) have argued that knowledge should flow freely and that attempting to lock down model outputs is both futile and counterproductive.

The open-source AI community has been particularly vocal. If Meta can release Llama openly and encourage anyone to build on it, why is it theft when someone builds on Claude's outputs? The philosophical inconsistency is glaring.

The "Everyone Is Distilling" Camp

Perhaps the most interesting position is held by researchers who point out that distillation is ubiquitous. Every time a developer uses GPT-4 to generate training data for a fine-tuned model, that's distillation. Every time a company uses Claude to create synthetic datasets, that's distillation. The practice is so widespread that criminalizing it would affect the entire AI ecosystem, not just Chinese labs.

The Stanford HAI report on AI policy noted that "the line between legitimate use of AI systems and unauthorized distillation is often unclear and context-dependent."


What Happens Next

The Regulatory Response

Congress is moving, but slowly. The PAIP Act would create a federal framework for AI model protection, including criminal penalties for "systematic extraction of AI model capabilities for the purpose of training competing systems." But it faces opposition from open-source advocates, civil liberties groups, and ironically, some AI companies that benefit from the current ambiguity.

The Commerce Department is exploring whether AI model outputs could be classified as controlled technology under export regulations. This would be unprecedented -- you'd essentially be regulating the output of a conversation with an AI as an export-controlled good.

Technical Countermeasures

Both Anthropic and OpenAI have announced enhanced detection systems:

  • Behavioral fingerprinting: Embedding subtle patterns in model outputs that can identify when those outputs are used for training
  • Rate limiting and usage pattern analysis: Identifying coordinated extraction campaigns
  • Output watermarking: Techniques that embed statistical signatures in model outputs that survive the training process
  • Canary tokens: Unique phrases or patterns inserted into responses that appear in distilled models

These are arms-race measures. For every detection technique, there's a countermeasure. Paraphrasing outputs before using them for training, mixing outputs from multiple models, or using the distilled model to rewrite the training data can all defeat current watermarking approaches.

The Geopolitical Escalation

The distillation wars are a proxy for the broader U.S.-China AI competition. The real stakes aren't Anthropic's revenue or OpenAI's market share. The real stakes are:

  1. Who controls frontier AI capabilities? If distillation allows any nation-state to acquire near-frontier capabilities cheaply, the entire theory of AI advantage through spending collapses.

  2. Can export controls work for AI? Unlike chips, which are physical objects that can be tracked, AI model capabilities can be extracted through an API from anywhere in the world. Controlling the spread of AI knowledge may be fundamentally impossible.

  3. Does the AI moat exist? If a $100 million frontier model can be replicated at 90% capability for $500,000 through distillation, the economic model of the entire American AI industry is questionable. The investors pouring billions into OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google are betting that frontier models create durable competitive advantages. Distillation threatens that bet.


What I Actually Think

This is simultaneously a legitimate security concern and a masterclass in corporate narrative management.

The distillation happened. The evidence from Anthropic is detailed and credible. Twenty-four thousand fake accounts generating 16 million exchanges is not a gray area. It's a systematic campaign to extract proprietary capabilities. MiniMax, Moonshot, and DeepSeek knew what they were doing, and the scale proves it was organizational, not rogue employees.

But the framing is strategic. Anthropic and OpenAI aren't just reporting a problem -- they're positioning for regulatory capture. They want legislation that protects their business model while appearing to protect national security. They want export controls that restrict competition while appearing to restrict adversaries. They want the government to enforce their Terms of Service because they can't enforce it themselves.

The hypocrisy is real and it matters. You cannot train on billions of copyrighted works without permission, settle for $1.5 billion, and then claim moral authority over others who use your outputs without permission. The technique is different but the ethical principle is identical: using someone else's work product to build something competitive without their consent.

The national security argument has merit but is overstated. Yes, adversarial nations acquiring AI capabilities cheaply is a legitimate concern. No, the primary motivation of OpenAI's congressional testimony is not national security -- it's competitive advantage. These companies would be making the same complaints if the distillation came from European or Indian labs. The China angle makes it politically palatable.

The legal vacuum is the real story. We have no framework for this. Copyright doesn't apply to AI outputs. ToS can't be enforced internationally. No court has ruled. No legislation has passed. We're navigating a fundamental shift in how knowledge and capability transfer between organizations, and our legal system hasn't even begun to address it.

What should happen? Three things:

First, distillation should be acknowledged as a legitimate technique that exists on a spectrum from clearly acceptable (using AI outputs for personal learning) to clearly unacceptable (24,000 fake accounts extracting capabilities at industrial scale). Drawing that line requires nuance, not blanket bans.

Second, the legal framework needs to distinguish between scale and intent. A researcher using Claude to generate training examples is fundamentally different from a state-backed lab creating thousands of fake accounts for systematic extraction. The law should reflect that difference.

Third, the hypocrisy needs to end. If American AI companies want legal protection for their model outputs, they need to accept the same principles applied to the copyrighted works they trained on. You can't demand protection for your outputs while refusing to acknowledge the rights of the people whose work created those outputs.

The distillation wars aren't about theft. They're about power -- who gets to build frontier AI, who gets to profit from it, and who gets to decide the rules. Right now, nobody is deciding the rules. And in that vacuum, everyone is doing exactly what you'd expect: whatever they can get away with.


Sources

  1. Anthropic -- Detecting AI Model Distillation
  2. OpenAI -- Testimony to House Select Committee on the CCP (February 2026)
  3. Hinton, Vinyals, Dean -- Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network (2015)
  4. Microsoft Research -- Evidence of DeepSeek Training on OpenAI Data
  5. Phi-4 Technical Report -- Synthetic Data from GPT-4o
  6. U.S. Copyright Office -- AI Policy Guidance
  7. Reuters -- DeepSeek Sends Shockwave Through AI Industry
  8. The Verge -- Anthropic Copyright Lawsuit
  9. The Guardian -- Anthropic Settles Copyright Lawsuit for $1.5B
  10. NYT vs OpenAI Lawsuit
  11. Stanford HAI -- AI Index Report
  12. DeepSeek-R1 Technical Report